LOOKS GOOD ABOVE ( BUY ABOVE ) >>>>>5194.40
CROSS & TRADE ABOVE 5194.40 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH
5220.00-------5255.00------5280.00-------5340.00-------5374.40--------5406.70--------5431.30-------5455--------5494.90--------5535-----5570-----5594----5619-----5641
LOOKS WEAK BELOW ( SELL BELOW ) <<<<< 5160.20
BREAK & TRADE BELOW 5160.20 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH
5120-----5068.80----5035.40-----5009.90------4966.40------4915.20-------4864.00----------4815.40---------4786.00--------4746.20--------4718.10-------4669.40
Disclaimer :
Investing in any equity is risky.Our recommendations are based on reliable sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts.The information provided is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading any stock or Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by them. I am not liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
BANK NIFTY TECHNICAL VIEW FOR AUGUST' 2012
LOOKS GOOD ABOVE ( BUY ABOVE ) >>>>> 10285.00
CROSS & TRADE ABOVE 10285.00 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH
10359------10423-------10523-------10613--------10667------10748------10801------10848------10925----------11084------11170-------11248-----11316------11401.90-------11522.00
LOOKS WEAK BELOW ( SELL BELOW ) <<<<< 10224.00
BREAK & TRADE BELOW 10224.00 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH
10187.90------10139.00---------10065.15--------9956.10--------9875.50-------9822.90-------9749.50----------9701.20--------9581.15--------9520--------9460.25--------9370.30-------9319.60---------9275.10-----9163.90
Disclaimer :
Investing in any equity is risky.Our recommendations are based on reliable sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts.The information provided is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading any stock or Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by them. I am not liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.
CROSS & TRADE ABOVE 10285.00 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH
10359------10423-------10523-------10613--------10667------10748------10801------10848------10925----------11084------11170-------11248-----11316------11401.90-------11522.00
LOOKS WEAK BELOW ( SELL BELOW ) <<<<< 10224.00
BREAK & TRADE BELOW 10224.00 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH
10187.90------10139.00---------10065.15--------9956.10--------9875.50-------9822.90-------9749.50----------9701.20--------9581.15--------9520--------9460.25--------9370.30-------9319.60---------9275.10-----9163.90
Disclaimer :
Investing in any equity is risky.Our recommendations are based on reliable sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts.The information provided is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading any stock or Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by them. I am not liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.
Subbarao’s credibility rises with firm policy stance
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) credibility appears to have risen among global peers as the central bank stuck to its guns and refused to reduce the benchmark repo rate on Tuesday, 31 July, opting instead to target inflation management as its chief priority.
Experts and RBI-watchers have lauded Governor Duvvuri Subbarao’s move of keeping rates unchanged, pointing to the ‘nail-biting’ global conditions which have compelled other central banks to cut rates. RBI, on the other hand, sent a signal by cutting the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), the proportion of deposits banks park in government bonds, by one percentage point to 23 percent so that banks which are short on liquidity can lend to productive sectors.
Says Leif Eskesen, Chief Economist for India & ASEAN at HSBC: “Nail-biting global economic conditions have compelled central banks in advanced and emerging economies to cut rates, and moderate domestic economic growth has drummed up pressures on the RBI to act. However, the RBI kept cool and stayed focused on its objective, which helps cement its credibility.”
Most experts agree that maintaining status quo was a very tough decision for Subbarao given the circumstances building all around. But most agree that preserving the little ammo it has left at its disposal was the right thing for the RBI to do at this stage, should the situation get worse owing to a mix of global and domestic reasons. Acting right now, by cutting rates after it cut rates by a deep 50 basis points in April, could be premature.
Overall, the situation for the RBI is far from comfortable. The central bank has made it clear that the slowdown has little to do with interest rates being where they are, and more to do with supply-side constraints, thanks to lack of progress on structural reforms. The investment cycle has, therefore, taken a hit. Inflation remains a clear and present danger, and RBI is unwilling to risk that by another round of rate cuts.
Says Eskesen: “On the inflation front, the RBI has plenty to worry about in addition to the tight capacity associated with the supply-led slowdown in growth. The depreciated exchange rate is loosening overall financial conditions and countering the decline in oil prices, which has reversed a bit recently. Hikes in diesel and kerosene prices are waiting in the wings, and the deficient monsoons are another headache for the RBI, given the potential implications for headline inflation and inflation expectations.”
That inflation and growth are both going to be different from earlier expectations is amply borne out by the fact that the RBI has altered both projections – bringing down growth to 6.5 percent from the earlier 7.3 percent, and increasing inflation from the earlier 6.5 percent to 7 percent.
The bank’s hopes of fiscal adjustment and consolidation have also not come about. There’s no clarity on when diesel prices will be hiked and the subsidy burden continues to be a huge worry. Big-ticket structural reforms are still nowhere in sight. RBI, therefore, has opted to maintain status quo on rates while giving banks some leeway on liquidity
Experts and RBI-watchers have lauded Governor Duvvuri Subbarao’s move of keeping rates unchanged, pointing to the ‘nail-biting’ global conditions which have compelled other central banks to cut rates. RBI, on the other hand, sent a signal by cutting the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), the proportion of deposits banks park in government bonds, by one percentage point to 23 percent so that banks which are short on liquidity can lend to productive sectors.
Says Leif Eskesen, Chief Economist for India & ASEAN at HSBC: “Nail-biting global economic conditions have compelled central banks in advanced and emerging economies to cut rates, and moderate domestic economic growth has drummed up pressures on the RBI to act. However, the RBI kept cool and stayed focused on its objective, which helps cement its credibility.”
Most experts agree that maintaining status quo was a very tough decision for Subbarao given the circumstances building all around. But most agree that preserving the little ammo it has left at its disposal was the right thing for the RBI to do at this stage, should the situation get worse owing to a mix of global and domestic reasons. Acting right now, by cutting rates after it cut rates by a deep 50 basis points in April, could be premature.
Overall, the situation for the RBI is far from comfortable. The central bank has made it clear that the slowdown has little to do with interest rates being where they are, and more to do with supply-side constraints, thanks to lack of progress on structural reforms. The investment cycle has, therefore, taken a hit. Inflation remains a clear and present danger, and RBI is unwilling to risk that by another round of rate cuts.
Says Eskesen: “On the inflation front, the RBI has plenty to worry about in addition to the tight capacity associated with the supply-led slowdown in growth. The depreciated exchange rate is loosening overall financial conditions and countering the decline in oil prices, which has reversed a bit recently. Hikes in diesel and kerosene prices are waiting in the wings, and the deficient monsoons are another headache for the RBI, given the potential implications for headline inflation and inflation expectations.”
That inflation and growth are both going to be different from earlier expectations is amply borne out by the fact that the RBI has altered both projections – bringing down growth to 6.5 percent from the earlier 7.3 percent, and increasing inflation from the earlier 6.5 percent to 7 percent.
The bank’s hopes of fiscal adjustment and consolidation have also not come about. There’s no clarity on when diesel prices will be hiked and the subsidy burden continues to be a huge worry. Big-ticket structural reforms are still nowhere in sight. RBI, therefore, has opted to maintain status quo on rates while giving banks some leeway on liquidity
Chidambaram set to be FM; 3 portfolio changes likely
The government has sent the notification on cabinet portfolio changes to the President house and a formal announcement is expected soon, reports CNBC-TV18's Shereen Bhan quoting sources.
Since Pranab Mukherjee resigned from his post to fight the Presidential election, the Prime Minister was handling the finance portfolio as well. That vacancy has made the portfolio rejig necessary.
It is now indeed confirmed that P Chidambaram is going to be moving back to North Block. This is going to be good news as far as the market I concerned. Chidambaram is seen as an investor-friendly and a progressive reformist. So, it is going to be interesting to see what he can really do in this tenure as finance minister.
In his place at the home ministry, we are going to see Sushil Kumar Shinde, the former Maharashtra chief minister, now the Power Minister coming in and taking over from Chidambaram. That is not going to go down particularly well because Sushil Kumar Shinde has been anything, but short of a disappointment as the Power Minister.
The power ministry under Shinde has been an absolute disaster. We have seen what has happened over the last 24 hours with the northern grid collapsing, not once, but twice. In fact, today even the eastern grid collapsed. We certainly hope that his tenure at the home ministry is at least better than what he delivered as the power minister.
Sources also say that Corporate Affairs Minister Veerappa Moily is going to be taking additional charge of the power ministry. He will be taking over from Sushil Kumar Shinde and holding the power portfolio additionally, but sources also say that a full-time power minister could be appointed shortly, but at this point these are the three changes.
It is learnt that once the Parliament actually resume it is going to be very difficult for the PM to be taking questions and attending to the business of the finance minister specially given the economic conditions at this point in time and hence the government thought it was prudent to move Chidambaram back to the finance ministry.
Oil companies flayed for hike in petrol price hike
Bihar today accused oil companies for increasing the prices of petrol products without consulting the state government on irrecoverable taxes.
"The oil companies have not given any information to the state government about the irrecoverable taxes before increasing the petrol prices," Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi told reporters here.
He said the state commercial taxes department had sought the details about it from the oil companies.
Besides, there was no change in state government imposed entry tax, VAT and surcharge on petroleum products, he said.
Now, there is one per cent VAT on LPG, 24.5% on petrol, 18% on diesel and 5% on kerosene, he said.
The deputy chief minister said a meeting would be held under the chairmanship of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar soon after receiving responses of the oil companies.
Half of India powerless; Northern, Eastern grids collapse
The Northern and Eastern Grids tripped again on Tuesday, leading to power failure in as many as 14 states of the country affecting hundreds of millions of people. Power supply was disrupted in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Assam and Sikkim.
The power crisis led to immediate shut-down of Delhi Metro lines in the national capital, while a host of other services including Railways were also affected."It is wrong to allege that UP is overdrawing power," says UP Power Corporation CMD AP Mishra.
The entire north-east region is unaffected. Sikkim, Assam too unaffected, contrary to earlier reports. "The Bhakra Nangal plant has been started and we are drawing hydel power for the time being for Punjab," said Union power minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. "The Western Grid has not been impacted, though there has been overdrawing from the western grid, said general manger, Western Grid.
"The North-Eastern Grid also affected," say officials."The Kolkata Metro is running normal, as supply comes from CAC power supply," stated Pratyush, DGM, Kolkata Metro. "We will try to restore services of Delhi Metro and the Railways first," said Sushil Kumar Shinde
In the South-Eastern Railways, divisions including Kharargpur, Chakradharpur, Ranchi and Agra are affected. Since South-Eastern Railway is completely electrified and not dependent on diesel power, the situation is really bad in this region. Eighty passenger trains of the South-Eastern Railway are stranded. Fourteen trains of Agra division are stranded.
The states affected are Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Assam and Sikkim. "Hydel power is being sourced for power to Punjab and the government is trying to make alternate arrangements," Shinde.
Almost 500 trains of the Indian Railways are stuck. Six zones including Northern Railway, Eastern Railway and North-Central Railway are affected," said Anil Saxena, CPRO, Indain Railways. Train services have been halted in Asansol, Sealdah and Howrah divisions in West Bengal after failure of the Eastern grid at 1:00 pm, announced the Indian Railways.
The Delhi Police have realeased an advisory to the public avoid the Connaught Place area.The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission issued an order on July 30 to curb overdrawing by Northern Grid member states. All heads of state power transmission companies of the Northern Grid have been summoned on August 14.
RBI keeps policy rates unchanged, SLR cut to 23%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its April-June quarter monetary policy on Tuesday left the key policy rate unchanged. However, it cut the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 23% from 24% earlier. This policy action was by and large in-line with CNBC-TV18 poll. Now, the repo rate or the rate at which banks borrow from RBI remained at 8% while the reverse repo rate at which, the banks lend to RBI stood at 7%.
SLR is the percentage of total deposits that lenders need to invest in the government bonds. The reduction is aimed at ensuring free flow of credit growth through enough liquidity in the system.
Cash Reserve Ratio or CRR is the portion of total deposits that banks are required to keep with the central bank also remained unchanged.
"Keeping in view the slowdown in growth, the Reserve Bank frontloaded
the policy rate reduction in April with a cut of 50 basis points. Subsequent
developments suggested that even as growth moderated, inflation remained
sticky. Keeping in view the heightening risks to inflation, the Reserve Bank decided to pause in the Mid-Quarter Review (MQR) of June 2012, even in the face of slowing growth," D Subbarao, the governor of RBI said in the first quarter policy statement.
After a gap of nearly three years, RBI had last cut policy rate by 50 bps in annual monetary policy announced on April 17.
Meanwhile, the central bank raised the baseline projection of WPI based inflation to 7% for March, 2013 as against the earlier projection of 6.50%. This clearly suggests that RBI may not slash policy rates in a hurry unless the rate of inflation tapers down.
"The deficient and uneven monsoon performance so far will have an adverse impact on food inflation. Notwithstanding some moderation, international crude oil prices remain elevated. This, coupled with the pass-through of rupee depreciation to import prices, continues to put upward pressure on domestic fuel price inflation," RBI said in the first quarter review of the credit policy 2012-13.
The lower-than-expectated rainfall also led to a moderation of GDP growth outlook. RBI revised its growth projection to 6.5% from 7.3% as predicted in the April policy.
Interestingly, India is ranked lowest in rating among all BRIC countries. In its macroeconomic policy, RBI alerted the government of the need to revive investment climate. This can be done through policy actions like removal of bottlenecks in infrastructure sector, liberal foreign direct investment norms and so on.
"The primary focus of monetary policy remains inflation control in order
to secure a sustainable growth path over the medium-term. While monetary
actions over the past two years may have contributed to the growth slowdown an unavoidable consequence several other factors have played a significant role. In the current circumstances, lowering
policy rates will only aggravate inflationary impulses without necessarily
stimulating growth," the note policy said.
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